We are not blind we are not deaf he said

The status quo monetary decided yesterday by the European Central Bank (ECB) has initially helped the single currency to increase its earnings. At the top of the session, the euro is traded against 1,2389 dollar, after opening to 1,2270 dollar. This rebound is operated on a background of tensions on interest rates. The performance of the French OAT 10 years won 4 points of 4,045, while the French rate in 2 years, more sensitive to monetary policy decisions, jumped by 7 basis points, to 2.34. Even if a few operators were taken to hope, last week, a surprise decline in the rate of the ECB, the majority was positioned for a status quo.

Everyone provided however that Jean-Claude Trichet clearly open the door to monetary expansion in the coming months. However, in the end, the President of the ECB has retained a rather neutral position. His speech is certainly more shopping than delivered at the March meeting, particularly because it reveals some concern in the short term on the growth of the euro area, under the effect of a weak persistence of household consumption. But not to the point of pushing the ECB to move in the Emergency Department. "Interest rates remain currently in line with the objectives of price stability at medium-term bank", stressed the President.

"Forecast questioned".

Pressed, Jean-Claude Trichet held to remind that the ECB had no particular bias regarding the next monetary decisions. This does not mean as much as a change in monetary policy is impossible. "We are not blind, we are not deaf," he said. "The ECB demi-mot that his economic forecasts are beginning to be questioned, but the point push to change the current balance still not recognized", summarizes Ken Wattret, strategist at BNP Paribas. "If the economic horizon continues to darken what we think , the ECB reacts accordingly, provided that there is no inflationary pressure." An analysis shared by the team of ING Bank, that "a monetary easing still always possible on the occasion of the next meeting of the Committee of Governors, scheduled for May 6". However, this hypothesis will happen that if there was, by then a new fall significant confidence, activity and inflation", from current levels.

The stock market appreciated

Tensions on the European yields of these statements are accelerated late in the day in the wake of the sharp rise in us long rates very poorly responded to the publication of the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers index. Found at 62.5, this indicator has won 1.1 points from February, evidence that the economic rebound is still news across the Atlantic.

On the other hand, the subcomponent "price" of SDA won 4.5 points from February, 86. It is the highest level since December 1994. This high figure shows that the directors of purchases of American companies record a surge in prices at the entrance, indirectly linked to the pricing of raw materials. What revive concerns about a possible rebound of inflation in the United States could encourage the fed to abandon its accommodative monetary policy sooner than expected.

The bond yields to us 10-year benchmark State rose 5 points of base yesterday, to 3.88. The new progress of the ISM index, however, was welcomed positively by the markets: in closing, the Dow Jones index registered a 0.15 increase, to 10.373,33 points. A few hours earlier, the Paris stock exchange was completed on an increase of 1.23, to 3.669,98 points.

Sensitive progression of the purchase price is not necessarily good news for Wall Street in the medium term, to the extent it reinforces expectations of rising interest rates and that it implies that the pressure on the margins of the companies, which still have difficulty controlling their final sales prices, remains high. This news caused catches of profits on the single currency in any end of session, the euro exchanging finally against 1,2315 dollar yesterday evening.