2 the gross domestic product GDP fell by 2

While the euro area was Wednesday in the publication of estimates of growth in the first quarter a few reasons for satisfaction (in Italy, the Portugal or even Germany), the figures published by the Insee for the France confirmed that upturn was not the order of the day. The recession was first, a little deeper than expected. Instead of the expected benefit of 2.2, the gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 2.6 last year (-2.5 in working day adjusted data), to 1.907,1 billion euros. "The activity remains end of 2009 to a near level observed three years previously", observed the Insee. Beyond this review comes as 2008 (read here), the rebound began in the spring of last year, that would be amplifying each quarter, experienced a blow of judgment in the first quarter: GDP grew by 0.1 (close to the forecast 0.2 of the Insee).

This evolution "is similar to that of our neighbours on the same period", placed the Minister of economy (read pages 6.7 and 8), which holds that, "on average, French activity increased by 0.3 per quarter over one year".

Fragility of the recovery

Indeed, the consolidated recorded in the first quarter corrects the dynamism of end 2009, artificially linked at the end of the case-sensitive full bonus in the car. But it shows the fragility of the recovery: while consumption is stagnant, business investment, which gave more than 12 percent since beginning of 2008, has not resumed. Only exports well held ( 3.9 in the first quarter). In an optimistic scenario, the France would be entered a phase of inversion of its engines, with a break of consumption linked to a job market barely convalescent, while trade would benefit from the resumption of world trade and the depreciation of the euro, and that the investment would be companies restarted, as anticipates it the industrial (read below).

In the meantime, the poor performance of the France will feed the debate on the timing and magnitude of a fiscal adjustment which would cost, according to Pierre - Olivier Beffy, of Exane BNP Paribas, 0.6-0.7 point of growth per year until 2014 (read below). "The stagnation of the French economy in the first quarter shows that our country is not out of the crisis and was not taking the path," responded Wednesday Martine Aubry in a communiqué, requesting "a sanitation fair and effective public accounts policy". "". In the current circumstances, economic agents have néoricardiens reflexes. "Additional fiscal stimulus would not strong multiplier effect", answers in the entourage of Christine Lagarde. "Need to continue structural reforms for potential growth." Otherwise it will be the glass ceiling around 1.7 growth per year, or 0.4 per quarter. "Pending the benefits of the reforms adopted for two years (research, professional tax, payment... tax credit) and the realization of the large loan, Bercy account, in the short term, monetary policy, with interest rates still low, to support the activity.

"Raise some brakes".

Companies, they should push the record of the financing of social protection, with the objective to reduce the cost of the work. To "boost the activity without mobilizing public funds", the issue is also "to remove certain regulatory brakes to growth", said Nicolas Bouzou, Economist of Asterès. A topic for the second report of the Attali commission, whereas at the beginning of the summer and some proposals were left aside two years ago.