In the event of victory Nestor Kirchner could run for the next presidential

It is that of legislative by-elections, but elections this Sunday in Argentina are of major importance for President Cristina Kirchner and her husband, which she succeeded in 2007. Firstly because the Peronist party, led by the former President, could lose the majority in the Congress and the Senate. And then because the candidacy of Nestor Kirchner to the position of Member of Parliament in the province of Buenos Aires, the most populous of the country, made these elections a referendum for or against the policy of the Kirchners since their arrival to power in 2003. The style authoritarian and populist President, modelled on that of her husband, his intransigent attitude during the conflict that it was opposed to farmers last year, and his repeated attacks against the press him lose many allies. Some believe that if Cristina Kirchner lost the elections, it could not go to the end of his term in 2011. In the event of victory, Nestor Kirchner could run for the next presidential.

Critics of the couple accuse him of having failed to seize the opportunity of soaring commodity prices first in the aftermath of the crisis of 2002 and not rebuilt the country on a solid, which would allow it to cope with the current international downturn. These legislative, planned for October, were also advanced by Cristina Kirchner did not risk to pay the electoral price to the global crisis.

Ineffective stimulus plans

Lost sentence because the recession is imposed earlier than expected, despite Government stimulus plans and his more interventionist policy. In early June, Buenos Aires and ordered Edesur Group $ 17 million of dividends because he had not fully respected its investment plan. The Government has also limited the number of redundancies by partially subsidizing salaries in firms in difficulty. Unions however denounce dismissals "on the drip" and, according to private estimates, the unemployment rate would be ironed over the 10 mark. Industrial activity fell by 9.5 between January and April, according to the argentine Industrial Union, the most affected sectors automotive and textile. According to official figures, private capital flight has tripled in the first quarter of 2009 over the same period 2008, to $ 3.5 billion.

These elections are coming only in the region, which will be another great electoral wave with more than a dozen of polls expected in the next two years. July 5, will be held at the Mexico of the partial legislative elections, in open war between cartels and right-wing President Felipe Calderon, before a group shot of general elections, Uruguay and the Honduras in October and November, then in Bolivia December 6 (in which Socialist President Evo Morales should run for a second term), and the Chile December 13where the Constitution prohibits Michelle Bachelet to represent. This poll could be fatal to the center-left coalition, in power since the end of the dictatorship, the candidate of the right, the billionaire Sebastian Pinera, is very well positioned in the polls. The year 2010 will be also marked by important elections in Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, and Ecuador, in October, a highly anticipated presidential Brazilian, after the two mandates of Lula (see below).

This electoral agitation will not be without consequences in a region unevenly hit by the global crisis. According to Enrique Iglesias, former IDB President, "as often in times of crisis, people are seeking for more authority, should therefore assist in the implementation of stronger grandstanding." Difficult however to imagine that in election period Governments do not open gates of public spending, even if leave spinning deficits.