In Europe the rise in the price is only 2

Today, global finance resembles a castle of the Carpathians. In the mists of the global economic uncertainty, warlords and bumpkins fear the arrival of a vampire named "inflation". The high priests are central bankers more top clung garlic from interest rates to flee. Carpenters hone piles of wood. But if indeed, the monster was seen in remote times, in the last century, some major clerics believe that it was engulfed in turmoil in history. All of these fields of garlic mowed for nothing

In the meantime, the only concern of the vampire is enough to blow a wind of panic in the corridors of the Castle. Stock market prices have lost more than 10 in Paris in a month. It is no longer a question that the "flight to quality", which is to take refuge in the supposed financial quality products, better keep resist the onslaught of the vampire. In the United States, financial operators indicated through the premium that they agree to pay for bonds indexed on inflation, they provided an average annual rate of increase prices up to 2.7 in the medium term. While the cupbearer of Washington, Ben Bernanke, is less than 2 and openly displays its concern. What panic financial markets which the vampire is the black beast. Because it masks the reality of the large cape, it sucks the blood of all rated products by eroding their value and especially that it plants its canines in the neck of central bankers to increase the rent of money.

But where does fear come from Here, everything is complicated. In the United States, the increase in prices over the past year reached 4.2. It is many, and even too, as the Americans expect further movement. But this is not new: since four years, the consumer prices accelerated in the United States. And this is not inflation, which is defined as a runaway generalized to all prices. But the recent increase reflects particularly soaring oil prices, which have tripled in three years. In the matter, the worst is probably behind us. The price of black gold went from an annual 50 beginning 2005-30 slope today and will return in a range increase of 10 to 20 this summer.

On the financial markets, there is concern indeed much of the "heart" of inflation, i.e. excluding energy and food prices rising. Since March, they progress of 0.3 per month. The UEA is would enter After all, the airlines are already pay "overloads kerosene" to their customers, and some manufacturers are beginning to index the price of their machines on steel prices. Yet, the kindling is General. The progress comes to half of a single position, named "the equivalent of the rent to the owners." That the price index reflects the conditions of life for all households, experts from the Bureau of Labor Statistics assess each quarter the rent that would pay the owners of accommodation if they did not have their roof. Broker Aurel Leven economists point out that this acrobatic calculation passes now... both the real estate boom and the declining cost of gas!

In reality, prices are incredibly wise. In Europe, the rise in the price is only 2.5 and the heart of inflation to 1.6 per cent, while global growth has never been as strong a generation and the boom in demand made beat records in the course of most raw materials. The last comparable episode, dating back to the 1970s, had led to an escalation of prices which has finally been eradicated after a decade at the cost of a severe recession. Market operators have the memory of that time, even if some of them were not born at the time. They fear the shadow of the vampire. The mechanism that allowed his appearance is broken. The increase in the cost of living causes more wages, even if the President of the European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet continues to watch for the "second round effects" as Estragon in waiting for Godot. The experts of OECD gave an eloquent title to a picture of their recent "Economic Perspectives": "real wages are lagging productivity." In a recent note, Patrick Artus, Ixis-CIB Chief Economist, said that "the bargaining power of employees has completely disappeared." The influence of unions back. Employment has become more fragmented, less mass. Companies relocate or outsource.

The risk of runaway prices is more salaries, but imported prices, a situation unique and difficult to predict. The fear is reflected in the speech from the central bankers that constantly evoke "imported inflation." The outbreak of the raw materials is not sufficient to justify this fear, because it did not trigger inflationary spiral in importing countries. Therefore seek beyond the reasons for the concern. There are two main. Primo, Asia hinders more prices. Over the past decade, the first Eastern export product has indeed been... deflation, coming from the Japan where it result damage to the huge financial bubble exploded late 1989 and also from China where the integration of tens of millions of employees from the campaigns was squeezing wages. But today, the Japan is out of deflation and companies in China must pay higher wages, particularly in frameworks.

Secondly, the mechanics of the price it also became globalized. Before, a strong use of machinery or a very low rate of unemployment in a given country reflected in price and wage increases. Now, the full utilisation of capacity in a country like the United States encourages companies to produce elsewhere. "Globalization has helped reduce the sensitivity of inflation to the constraints on domestic production capacity", said the IMF in its report on the global economy published in April. Symmetrically, price shocks are transmitted from one end of the world to another, far more widely than antan. This simple perspective has what torment all enemies of inflation: If the vampire comes back one day, he will not follow the already known trails.