The Italy the Germany or the France come into recession

Would Europe be paying the pots broken America This is the impression which emerges from the latest forecasts of growth of the Organization for cooperation and development (OECD), published yesterday. Experts of the Château de la Muette strongly revised downward their prognosis for the euro area this year and clearly noted that the United States. Sending the idea that the Continent suffers finally much more that the new world of the crisis for Americans at high risk, the famous "sub-prime" mortgages, last summer and the economic slowdown that followed throughout the world.

The euro area in stagflation

The OECD table more than on growth of GDP of 1.3 in the 15 countries using the single currency, against even 1.7 per cent last spring. Close sales from that expected by the international monetary Fund (IMF): 1.4. Organization economists have integrated very bad performance of the euro area in the second quarter: a decline in GDP from 0.8 in annual rate. The activity should remain sluggish in the third and fourth quarters, they provide, but should not withdraw again. The Italy, the Germany or the France come into recession. Unlike the United Kingdom.

The euro moved rather in stagflation. The rise in prices is "significantly above the target of the European Central Bank (ECB)", 2, note the Organization, which is not favourable to a decline in interest rates in the short term. The fall in prices of raw materials and the economic downturn should lead to the moderation in inflation in the coming months. The ECB will then lower the rent of money, according to her. "Find it helpful to change the current guidelines of economic policies." "If the need to loosen or tighten macroeconomic conditions to date, it is monetary policy that should be the instrument to this effect," said the OECD, apparently very reserved with respect to any fiscal stimulus, contrary to the IMF.

The economists of the Château de la Muette, however, reviewed, rising to 1.8 against 1.2 previously, their forecast for growth this year in the United States, due to the very good figure for the second quarter ( 3.3 annual rate). They are, from this point of view, more optimistic than the IMF that table, on an expansion of 1.4.

Uncertainty on the Bush plan

The US economy experience, of course, a serious brake in the second half, but it will be less marked than in the euro area, according to the OECD. However remains "a very broad uncertainty" across the Atlantic, the effects still to come from the recovery plan of the Bush administration and on the evolution of the real estate crisis, prevents.

As in Europe, the OECD notes stabilization of inflation in the United States and table on its recession in the coming months. This leads him to think that the Federal Reserve has no need to add the cost of credit. "Storm on markets for capital, the decline in real estate markets and the high cost of raw materials continue to weigh on global growth", insists the organization. The major developed countries will continue, prevents it, cross "a phase of weakness in activity until the end of this year."